海州湾双斑蟳栖息分布特征与环境因子的关系
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中国海洋大学水产学院;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室,中国海洋大学水产学院,中国海洋大学水产学院,中国海洋大学水产学院,中国海洋大学水产学院

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中央高校基本科研业务费专项(201612002,201712015)


Relationship between catch distribution of Portunid crab (Charybdis bimaculata) and environmental factors based on three species distribution models in Haizhou Bay
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Ocean University of China, college of fisheries;Laboratory for Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture,Ocean University of China, college of fisheries,,,

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    摘要:

    为了解双斑蟳栖息分布规律,实验根据2011—2016年多个季度航次在海州湾进行的渔业资源和环境调查数据,采用广义线性模型(GLM)、广义可加模型(GAM)以及随机森林3种物种分布模型(SDMs)方法,结合AIC(akaike information criterion)准则、累积偏差解释率和交叉检验等评判指标筛选和构建了双斑蟳栖息分布模型,并分析了环境因子对双斑蟳分布的影响。结果显示,3种模型在解释因子与响应变量间的关系上基本一致;其中GAM在模型拟合上具有优势,而随机森林的预测性能明显高于传统的GLM和GAM。双斑蟳相对渔获量在年份和月份间的变异性最为显著,两个因子的解释率分别在18%和3.8%以上。水深和表层盐度对双斑蟳资源分布的影响较大,均与双斑蟳相对丰度呈正相关关系;双斑蟳分布总体呈现冬季相对较高,夏季东北部海域高、西南部低的特点,与海州湾水深分布特点基本一致。本研究还根据FVCOM(finite-volume coasta ocean model)模拟环境数据,利用随机森林分布模型估计了双斑蟳在海州湾海域2011年各个季节的空间分布,为渔业资源的开发和保护提供依据。

    Abstract:

    There are internal relationships between the spatial and temporal distribution of species and environmental factors; however, the randomness and uncertainty of marine ecosystems prevent demonstrating the relationships in an easy way. Based on the seasonal bottom trawl survey data collected from 2011 to 2016 in Haizhou Bay and its adjacent waters, we used three species distribution models, including GLM, GAM and Random Forest to study the spatial distribution of Portunid crab (Charybdis bimaculata) and analyze the relation with environmental factors. We selected influential environmental variables and built models according to criteria such as AIC, deviance explanation and cross validation. The effects of environmental variables on the distribution of C. bimaculata were evaluated on the basis of the SDMs. The results showed similar results among the three models in the interpretation of the relationship between environmental variables and crab distribution. The GAM provided better fit to data, whereas random forest have superior predictive performances than the other models. The models illustrated significant variations of crab abundance among years and seasons, which contributed to over 18 percent and 3.8 percent of total deviance, respectively. Depth and sea surface salinity were influential environmental factors for relative abundance, both positive correlated with relative catches. The spatial distribution of Portunid crab was featured by high catches in northeast area and low in southwest, in accordance with the water depth in Haizhou Bay. We predicted the spatial distribution of C. bimaculata across seasons using FVCOM simulation data and the random forest model to facilitate the exploitation and conservation of the fishery resources.

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栾静,张崇良,徐宾铎,薛莹,任一平.海州湾双斑蟳栖息分布特征与环境因子的关系[J].水产学报,2018,42(6):889~901

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  • 收稿日期:2017-06-16
  • 最后修改日期:2017-10-11
  • 录用日期:2017-10-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2018-05-17
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