水产科学研究中被忽视的II型错误
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浙江海洋学院,浙江海洋学院水产学院,School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA

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国家自然科学基金(31270527);浙江省公益性技术应用研究计划(2015C33094);浙江省自然科学基金(LY13D010005);浙江省本科院校中青年学科带头人学术攀登项目(Pd2013222)


Neglected Type II errors in the researches of fisheries science
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School of fisheries,Zhejiang Ocean University,School of fisheries,Zhejiang Ocean University,School of Marine Sciences,University of Maine,Orono,ME ,USA

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    摘要:

    显著性检验利用样本信息来判断对总体所做假设的合理性,检验结果可能犯2类错误,即I型错误和II型错误(分别为弃真错误和纳伪错误)。随着水产科学研究的不断规范与深入,显著性检验方法的使用越来越频繁。在国内6个水产期刊近5年(2011年1月-2015年4月)发表的3829篇学术文章中,使用了显著性检验方法的有2235篇,占到58.4%。然而,这些显著性检验均只关注了I型错误,完全忽略了对II型错误的分析。事实上,II型错误并非不重要,犯该错误的概率也往往会大于I型错误,而且有时其带来的危害比I型错误更加严重。在水产科学研究中同样如此,对II型错误的忽视,很可能导致管理失误,从而引起渔业资源衰退。本研究对国内外水产科学研究中II型错误分析的应用进行了总结,阐明了国内水产科学研究中有关II型错误分析缺失的现状;通过实例,简要介绍了犯II型错误概率β(或检验效能power=1-β)的计算方法;分析阐述了影响检验效能的几个主要因素与β之间的关系;针对II型错误分析,探讨今后水产科学研究与管理中需要注意的问题,并对其未来发展进行了展望。

    Abstract:

    Test of statistical significance uses samples to infer the statistic property of population from which the samples are taken. Two types of error, Type I (i.e., reject a true null hypothesis) and Type II errors (i.e., accept a false null hypothesis) can be made in a test of significance. Significance tests are commonly used in fisheries to identify statistical differences. Of the 6 major domestic fisheries journals, significance test methods were used in 2235 research articles within the recent 5 years (from January 2011 to April 2015), which accounted for 58.4% of all the research articles that were published in these 6 journals during the corresponding period. However, attention was only paid to the Type I errors in all these studies, and the Type II error was totally neglected. However, Type II error is not unimportant. The probability of having Type II error is often higher than that of Type I error, and sometimes the consequences are more serious for committing Type II errors. Neglecting Type II errors in fisheries is likely to result in fisheries mismanagement, consequently leading to overexploitation of fishery resources. In this study, the analyses of the Type II errors in fisheries researches were reviewed, and the potential consequence and implication of committing Type II errors in domestic fisheries researches were discussed; and the calculation method of the probability of having Type II error β (or statistical power 1-β) was described using fisheries examples. The relationships between β and several main influence factors were analyzed. We strongly suggest that Type II errors be considered and evaluated in the future fisheries research to reduce the likelihood of making serious mistakes in fisheries management.

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王迎宾,俞存根,陈勇.水产科学研究中被忽视的II型错误[J].水产学报,2016,40(1):135~143

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  • 收稿日期:2015-05-28
  • 最后修改日期:2015-10-10
  • 录用日期:2016-01-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2016-01-27
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