莱州湾泥螺生态安全风险评估——基于AHP的YAAHP软件实现
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中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所,中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所,中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所,中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所

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S 917

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国家自然科学基金(41276172);海洋外来物种生态安全评价方法研究(DOMEP(MEA)-01-01-D);国家贝类产业技术体系(CARS-48)


The ecological risk assessment of Bullacta exarata in Laizhou Bay:the YAAHP software implementation based on AHP
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Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences

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    摘要:

    以莱州湾西岸外来物种泥螺为例,运用YAAHP软件,采用层次分析法(AHP)对其生态安全风险进行了评估。以泥螺完整的生物入侵过程为依据,针对各阶段的关键特性,综合考虑外来物种的生物学、生活史特征、人为干扰影响因素、入侵地的生态系统状况等方面来选取评估指标,设计6个一级指标,30个二级指标,设定了“可以引种”、“引种具有一定风险”和“禁止引种”3个风险分级标准,构建了风险评价指标框架。通过对历史文献资料的分析、专家评分以及必要的调查实验等方法,对风险评估层次结构模型各项指标进行权重赋值。软件分析的结果显示,“具有一定风险”的权重值最高,为0.507 6,其次为“可以引种”,权重值为0.352 2,而“禁止引种”的权重值仅为0.140 2,因此,得出的最终方案为引种具有一定的风险。本研究对占权重值较高的传入风险、定殖风险和扩散风险3项指标进行了灵敏度分析,结果表明,3种指标的权重只影响评估结果的“具有一定风险”和“可以引种”的排列顺序,而不会影响“禁止引种”。因此建议,切勿盲目扩大泥螺的养殖规模,引入之后必须加强监督和管理。

    Abstract:

    Ecological risk of alien species Bullacta exarata in Laizhou Bay was evaluated by analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method using YAAHP software.Evaluation indicators were selected by considering the key characteristics,such as the biology,life history characteristics,human disturbance factors,ecosystem status and so on.In this paper,six primary indexes and 30 secondary indexes were designed.Weights of these indicators were assigned according to the comprehensive analysis of published articles,expert ratings and our in situ measured results.Three risk grades were designed to construct the risk assessment system,which were "allowed introduction","a certain risk" and "forbidden introduction".Software analysis results showed that the values of "a certain risk","allowed introduction" and "forbidden introduction" were 0.507 6,0.352 2 and 0.140 2,respectively.Therefore,the final risk assessment result is "a certain risk".Sensitivity analysis was done by the YAAHP software.In the paper,we only reported the main results of the three highest weights value indicators,incoming,colonization and proliferation risks.Sensitivity analysis results showed that the weight of the three indicators could only influence the sequence of the results of "a certain risk" and "allowed introduction".Therefore,we suggest that we must not blindly introduce and expand the farming scale of the snail and it is better to strengthen supervision and management after the introduction.

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吴文广,张继红,魏龑伟,方建光.莱州湾泥螺生态安全风险评估——基于AHP的YAAHP软件实现[J].水产学报,2014,38(9):1601~1610

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  • 收稿日期:2014-03-24
  • 最后修改日期:2014-05-05
  • 录用日期:2014-06-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2014-09-24
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